Backtest
Plain DCA vs smart DCA — same deposits, different timing, paper fills at oracle prices.
Window
2026-01-17 → 2026-08-20
Deposited (both)
3,100 USDG
Plain DCA (default) result
2,986.91 · -3.65%
279 buys · always invested
Smart DCA (opt-in defensive) result
2,926.79 · -5.59%
69 buys · 553 USDG still cash
Smart DCAPlain DCAdeposited
Hover the chart for values. Both curves value the same deposit stream; only buy timing differs.
Monthly (table view)
| Month | Deposited | Smart value | Plain value | Smart − Plain |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01 | 300 | 300.37 | 283.58 | 16.79 |
| 2026-02 | 700 | 611.61 | 621.25 | -9.64 |
| 2026-03 | 1,100 | 880.04 | 884.48 | -4.44 |
| 2026-04 | 1,500 | 1,408.99 | 1,428.65 | -19.66 |
| 2026-05 | 2,000 | 1,919.06 | 2,033.75 | -114.69 |
| 2026-06 | 2,400 | 2,026.38 | 2,186.92 | -160.54 |
| 2026-07 | 2,700 | 2,460.35 | 2,608.73 | -148.38 |
| 2026-08 | 3,100 | 2,926.79 | 2,986.91 | -60.12 |
Read this honestly
- This is paper trading over 2026 data — simulated fills at oracle prices, ~7 months, one market regime. It is evidence, not a promise; short windows prove very little.
- This is why plain DCA is the platform default and the smart layer is an opt-in defensive mode: over this window smart underperformed (holding cash, buying “cheap” that got cheaper) with shallower drawdowns. If that keeps happening over long horizons, plain wins — and that is a valid outcome of the experiment.
- The smart layer is a hypothesis, not a proven edge. No return promises. DYOR.
Data generated 2026-08-26 from the paper plan ledger; rebuild the site to refresh.